While Ukraine’s Western allies continue to pledge additional weapons to its cause, a report from The Wall Street Journal, as well as other outlets, state that Iran has begun to deliver ballistic missiles to Russia, in a potentially significant shift in the dynamics of the conflict. While there have been previous reports that some of the Iranian-made missiles may already have been handed over, according to an unnamed U.S. official, the weapons “have finally been delivered.”
The shipment is said to involve “a couple of hundred short-range ballistic missiles,” according to Western officials. The exact type of Iranian missiles supplied is unconfirmed, but Iran has no shortage of such systems, with the latest examples offering a high level of accuracy and enough range to cover all of Ukraine.
According to an unnamed Ukrainian source speaking to Sky News today, the missiles are short-range Fath-360 types, delivered by a Russian ship from Iran to a port in the Caspian Sea. This is a shorter-range missile, with a range of around 75 miles, but is understood to use accurate satellite navigation, as well as an inertial guidance system. The availability of these missiles in large numbers would also allow Russia to concentrate its Iskander short-range ballistic missiles — which have a range of at least 310 miles — against more distant targets across Ukraine.
The same report also notes that there are indications that Russian troops have been training to use the missiles in Iran in the last few weeks.
In related news, ballistic missiles previously supplied to Russia by North Korea may have been the target of a Ukrainian overnight attack on the Voronezh region, in the central belt of the European part of Russia.
One of the targets of the long-range Ukrainian strikes was reportedly an ammunition dump, said to have been used to accommodate KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles, supplied to Russia by North Korea and used in Ukraine, albeit apparently with only mixed results. Presumably hit by one-way attack drones, the strike resulted in a series of dramatic secondary explosions and blazing fires.
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Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived yesterday in Germany for talks with Western defense officials, aimed at getting more military assistance — and faster. “It is crucial that all the weapons from the already announced support packages finally reach the combat brigades,” Zelensky said after his aircraft touched down at Ramstein Air Base.
“We also need strong long-range decisions from our partners to bring closer the just peace we are striving for,” the Ukrainian leader added, referencing Ukraine’s continued requests for more capable and further-reaching standoff weapons, especially urgent now that stocks of previously delivered Western munitions in this class are said to be running low.
Zelensky’s Ramstein visit saw him meet defense representatives from key partners including U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and German Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius. The Ukrainian leader also met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
“I’m grateful to all partners for the fact that the NATO Summit in Washington was marked by decisions on air defense systems for Ukraine,” Zelensky said. “However, many systems have yet to be delivered.”
Turning to the much-needed long-range strike capabilities, Zelensky praised France, the United Kingdom, and the United States for their previous deliveries of weapons in this category, with specific mention being made of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), plus the Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG air-launched cruise missiles.
“Thanks to our joint courage, we have implemented very important operations, in particular in Crimea,” Zelensky explained, in regard to long-range strike capabilities. “These operations allowed us to return security to the Black Sea and our food exports. Now we hear that your long-range policy has not changed, but we see changes in the ATACMS, Storm Shadows, and SCALPs — a shortage of missiles and cooperation.”
While it’s no surprise that the stocks of these weapons are likely becoming exhausted, the Ukrainian president’s point about cooperation refers to the continued unwillingness on the part of many Western officials to allow longer-range weapons to be used against targets within Russia’s borders.
“We think it is wrong that there are such steps,” Zelensky continued. “We need to have this long-range capability not only on the occupied territory of Ukraine but also on the Russian territory so that Russia is motivated to seek peace.”
Ukraine’s defense priorities were also outlined yesterday by the country’s Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov. Specifically, these are air defense systems and interceptors; ammunition and equipment; and strengthened long-range capabilities. As well as donated equipment Umerov called for Western allies to support and finance the Ukrainian defense industry, to encourage local development and production.
For its part, Germany says it won’t relent on its policy of prohibiting long-range strikes with donated weapons deep into Russian territory, although the same country has also stubbornly resisted calls to transfer the air-launched Taurus KEPD 350, a cruise missile in broadly the same class as the Storm Shadow and SCALP.
Speaking yesterday, German Minister of Defense Pistorius said that Germany has not changed its position on long-range strikes.
Nevertheless, Chancellor Scholz stressed that Germany remains “the strongest supporter of Ukraine in Europe” and that Berlin will “support Ukraine for as long as it takes.”
The latest German support for Ukraine is reportedly coming in the shape of 12 more Panzerhaubitze 2000 155mm self-propelled howitzers, as well as 77 more Leopard 1A5 tanks, which will be provided as part of a joint arrangement with Denmark, which you can read more about here.
Pistorius’s words were echoed by Secretary of Defense Austin who, when asked whether Ukraine would be permitted to strike (non-airbase) targets deep within Russia using ATACMs, reportedly responded that Kyiv should instead use its own long-range one-way attack drones.
There was a sign, however, of a potential shift in Washington’s position on strikes inside Russia using U.S.-supplied weapons, when U.S. Senator Mark Kelly, a Democrat from Arizona, told The Kyiv Independent that the restrictions needed to be reconsidered.
“Based on the conditions near the front and the territory [Ukraine is] currently slowly losing, I think it’s appropriate to reevaluate this and consider allowing (Ukraine) to use our weapons deeper into Russia,” Senator Kelly said.
“To go after military targets, whether it’s supply lines, supply depots, military bases, it’s something we need to reconsider. We should always be reevaluating and reconsidering what our role is.”
Meanwhile, the United States announced another $250 million in security assistance for Ukraine yesterday.
The package includes the following:
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Bradley infantry fighting vehicles
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M113 armored personnel carriers
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Mine-resistant ambush-protected (MRAP) vehicles
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RIM-7 Sea Sparrow missiles and support for air defense
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FIM-92 Stinger air defense missiles
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Ammunition for HIMARS
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155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition
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TOW missiles
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Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems
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Small arms ammunition and grenades
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Patrol boats
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Maritime training equipment
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Demolition equipment and munitions
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Spare parts
Canada is also sending more aid to Ukraine, as outlined in the tweet below.
Spain, for its part, has committed more ground-based air defense systems to Kyiv, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. During the meeting in Ramstein, Spain’s Minister of Defense Margarita Robles reportedly announced the “immediate dispatch of a complete HAWK battery, which includes six missile launchers.”
Despite being an older system that was rushed to Ukraine when it became clear that additional ground-based air defenses were in dire need, the HAWK appears to have been a notable success, as you can read about here.
Finally, the United Kingdom announced yesterday that it would supply 650 examples of the Lightweight Multirole Missile (LMM) to Ukraine. The LMM, also known as the Martlet, is the British Army’s successor to the Starstreak — also known as the High-Velocity Missile (HVM) — that has previously been supplied to Ukraine, both as a man-portable air defense system and mounted on Stomer tracked armored vehicles. The Martlet may well be used by Ukraine in the same applications, but it’s notable that it has been developed for air-launch and ship-launch, as well.
In response, Ukraine’s defense ministry said: “We are grateful to our British partners for their ironclad support and strengthening Ukraine’s air defense. Thanks for making us stronger.”
Ammunition and maintenance for Ukrainian F-16s has also been pledged, by the Netherlands. Speaking at Ramstein, Dutch Minister of Defense Ruben Brekelmans announced that the Netherlands will provide undisclosed air-to-air missiles, together with maintenance equipment and materials.
“The F-16 aircraft need support materials and spare parts for maintenance, otherwise they cannot fly. The Netherlands will supply €80 million worth of materials. Besides large quantities of spare parts, these include generators, small vehicles, essential maintenance materials, specialized tools, and stairs. With the air-to-air missiles, Ukraine can take down enemy aircraft.”
Citing reasons of operational safety, the minister did not provide any specifics about the quantities or types involved. However, the Dutch F-16 fleet is armed with AIM-120 AMRAAM and AIM-9 Sidewinder air-to-air missiles.
Meanwhile, on the battlefield, Russia’s Ministry of Defense said the country’s forces have taken control of the village of Zhuravka in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.
While this claim cannot be independently verified, there’s no doubt that fierce fighting is taking place elsewhere in the eastern Donbas region, with the video below showing human-wave-type attacks launched by Russian forces, purportedly near the coal-mining city of Vuhledar. The assault, reminiscent of World War I infantry tactics, results in heavy casualties as the Russian troops come under Ukrainian artillery and mortar fire.
In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian offensive continues, although Russian President Vladimir Putin claims that it has no effect and that by bringing “quite well-prepared units” into Kursk from elsewhere, Ukraine has actually helped Moscow’s advance in Donbas. “The enemy weakened itself in key areas, our army has accelerated its offensive operations.”
Ukraine’s top military commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, has countered Putin’s claims, saying the Kursk incursion was working and that there had been no Russian advances on Pokrovsk, a key sector of the Ukrainian front, for six days. “The enemy hasn’t advanced a single meter in the direction. In other words, our strategy is working,” he told CNN. Syrskyi said the military had also noted a decrease in shelling, and in the intensity of the Russian offensive in other sectors.
One apparent recent target of the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk is this pontoon bridge, located near Zvannoe, on the left bank of the River Seym. The second part of the same video shows the destruction of a Russian Osa (SA-8 Gecko) mobile surface-to-air missile system, reflecting the fact that Ukrainian fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters are also operating over Kursk.
The following video purportedly shows a Russian defensive position somewhere in the Kursk region that was captured by the Ukrainians — apparently by a squad of just nine soldiers.
As well as the invasion of Kursk, Ukraine is meanwhile conducting more covert activities elsewhere in Russia and in Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine. A video released by the Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) purports to show operatives from this organization, or affiliated with it, in various different parts of Russia and in Crimea.
Another grim scene from the war in Ukraine is provided in the following video, for which viewer discretion is advised.
In this incident, a Ukrainian soldier captured by Russians attempts to grab a weapon from one of his captors. The desperate move ends in his demise, together with at least one other Ukrainian soldier who had also been taken prisoner.
Surrendering of another kind is seen in the next video. Here, seen from the perspective of a nearby Ukrainian drone, a Russian soldier apparently offers an item of electronic equipment, in a hardened case, presumably in an effort to spare his life. It seems the equipment on offer was an electronic warfare jamming device, ironically intended to defeat drones. It remains unclear whether the soldier was successful in their efforts to survive.
As the drone war over Ukraine rages on, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense posted a video compiling air-to-air kills of Russian unmanned aerial vehicles, praising what it says was “the incredible work of Ukrainian drone operators who managed to shoot down 49 Russian reconnaissance UAVs.” While that figure cannot be independently verified and, moreover, no dates are provided for these alleged shoot-downs, the video does show some very interesting camouflage patterns applied to the Russian drones, reflecting the very real nature of the threat now presented by Ukrainian UAVs attempting to bring them down.
Another recent example of a Ukrainian air-to-air drone kill involved the destruction of a Russian Lancet, apparently one of the more recent izdeliye 51 versions of the UAV.
The M1910 Maxim machine gun, a design that predates World War I, is a weapon that we have seen in use in the conflict previously. The footage below shows how the water-cooled weapon is still providing useful firepower in Ukrainian anti-drone units, in this case, a female mobile fire group that is active against the threat of Russian Shahed-type long-range one-way attack drones.
Back to Ukrainian drones next, with reports that Ukraine has launched a tender for a first batch of 10,000 drones incorporating artificial intelligence (AI).
According to the reports, Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov announced the launch of the tender, which aims to encourage competition among manufacturers and drive down the prices of such drones. Fedorov disclosed that more than 10 companies have already applied for the tender, with the expectation that the unit cost of an AI-equipped drone will only be “a few hundred dollars more,” with that cost difference subsequently coming down to “tens of dollars,” Fedorov said. You can read all about the implication of infusing AI into lower-end drones, especially in regards to the war in Ukraine, in our special feature linked here.
A highly bizarre and brutal incident is captured in the next video. Presumably taken from a nearby drone, it shows a purportedly Russian soldier catching a first-person view (FPV) type drone in his hand, and continuing down the road with it. Exactly what happens next is unclear, but the soldier, already apparently injured, either drops the drone which then detonates, or it explodes in his hand, seemingly with lethal results.
In Russia, the fire that raged at a Russian oil facility in Proletarsk, in the Rostov region, after it was hit by Ukrainian drones on August 18, has reportedly finally been extinguished. The facility was struck by one of the many recent Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, but the fact that it burned for more than two weeks after it was hit remains remarkable.
The civilian population of Ukraine continues to suffer under Russian aerial bombardment, as evidenced in the video below, showing the aftermath of an attack on the city of Kharkiv. In this case, a Russian 1,102-pound aerial bomb purportedly struck a high-rise building in the eastern Ukrainian city, leading to the collapse of several floors.
The remains of another 1,102-pound aerial bomb are seen here, specifically an RBK-500 cluster bomb, a type which can be loaded with various types of submunitions. This example is also fitted with a UMPK, or Unifitsirovannyi Modul Planirovaniya i Korrektsii, meaning unified gliding and correction module — a combined guidance package and range-extended wing kit that you can read more about here.
Among the other weapons that have been extensively used in the Russian bombardment of Ukrainian cities and other targets are air-launched Kh-101 cruise missiles — also known by the Western reporting name AS-23A Kodiak.
In the past, we have seen evidence of these missiles deploying their infrared countermeasures, to protect them from Ukrainian air defenses, although the video below provides a particularly spectacular view of these flares, being filmed at night.
In related news, the Ukrainian InformNapalm, which describes itself as a “volunteer intelligence community,” has published details that it says explain how Russia has been able to continue and even increase the production output of the Kh-101 cruise missile, despite stringent Western sanctions. The volunteer group reports that the Raduga factory near Moscow, which builds Kh-101s, among other missiles, has expanded its production facilities and capacity. The group claims that this has been enabled by a supply of equipment from China, but also from manufacturers in Europe, including Germany and Italy.
As a result, Raduga plans to increase Kh-101 missile production from 420 missiles in 2023 to a planned 700 units in 2025, the group reports.
According to reports in the Ukrainian press, Belarus has, for the first time, successfully shot down Russian drones that entered its airspace.
The Belarusian Air Force downed two Russian attack drones on September 5, near the Belarusian city of Homel, was shot down.
While Belarus has so far not disclosed the nationality of the drone, The Kyiv Independent cites claims from a monitoring group that the drones brought down were Russian — likely Shahed-type one-way attack drones.
The drones were said to have been shot down by Belarusian MiG-29 Fulcrum fighter jets. A previous Belarusian attempt to use MiG-29s to intercept wayward Russian drones, on August 29, was not confirmed to have led to any UAVs being brought down.
MiG-29s are also used by the Ukrainian Air Force, of course, with at least one example having apparently ended up in a sunflower field in the spring of this year, the result of an emergency landing, the cause of which is unknown. The damage would appear to be fairly light, suggesting the chances of the fighter having returned to service are good.
The prominent Russian nationalist ex-militia commander Igor Girkin (also known as Strelkov), who had accused President Putin and the Russian military command of failure in the war in Ukraine, and who was convicted by a Moscow court in January this year, has reportedly been released from prison. Girkin, a former Federal Security Service (FSB) agent, had denied the charge of inciting extremism. Although he had been jailed for four years, he is now said to be heading to Ukraine to fight. While the news is yet to be independently verified, it is by now common practice for Russian prisoners to negotiate their release in exchange for providing combat service in Ukraine.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com
