Semifinal scenario: West Indies win leaves South Africa in tricky spot; How England can qualify

Just one more set of matches left in Group 2 of Super Eight before the 2024 edition of the T20 World Cup gets its first pair of semifinalists. 

Currently, three teams stand in contention for a semifinal spot, especially after West Indies’ emphatic win by nine wickets against the USA on Saturday at the Kensington Oval in Bridgetown, Barbados. 

Roston Chase and Andre Russell picked up three wickets each to fold the USA for just 128 runs in 19.5 overs before Shai Hope smashed a blitzkrieg knock of an unbeaten 82 off just 39 balls to help the West Indies pull off the chase in just 10.5 overs.

South Africa stand at the top of the table with four points from two games. The West Indies and England have both secured a win each from two matches in this round of the T20 World Cup, but the hosts stand ahead in the points table by virtue of a superior net run rate. The USA, on the other hand, who scripted a superb run to the Super Eight after beating 2009 champions Pakistan in the group stage and almost securing another stunner against India, are yet to open their account after two games.

South Africa: 

Back in 2007, the Proteas had scripted an unbeaten run of four straight wins. After topping in the group stage, they beat both England and New Zealand, but succumbed in their final Super Eight match against India before being knocked out by the Blackcaps via net run rate. 17 years later, South Africa find themselves in what could be a familiar position despite an unbeaten run of six straight wins. If West Indies beat Aiden Markram’s men next week, South Africa could possibly be out of the tournament. In fact, even a they lose via Super Over, a win for England against the USA could deny them a semifinal berth. South Africa’s best bet will be a win or a no result in their final Super Eight match.

England and West Indies: 

The battle between the two former champions will eventually go down to the net run rate. If both win their final games, England, South Africa and West Indies will be tied with six points. Hence, for England to make it through, they have to beat the USA by a heavy margin in a bid to topple the net run rate of both South Africa and West Indies. Given that England-USA will play their last Super Eight match ahead of South Africa-West Indies, if Jos Buttler’s men secure a convincing win to go past the Proteas via NRR, the final Group 2 match will be a straight shootout. However, if both England and West Indies lose, the two along with the USA will be tied on two points each, leaving the battle, once again, down to NRR.

USA: 

After a stunning show in the group stage, the co-hosts suffered consecutive losses to leave their semifinal fate hanging in the balance. Despite no wins yet in the Super Eight round, the USA are still mathematically alive in the race. While they need to beat defending champions England by 80 runs in their final game, they also need South Africa to get the better of West Indies by about 67 runs to make the semifinal via NRR.