Temperatures may soar past 45°C by 2030: Study

Projections indicate that if current trends persist, temperatures during heatwaves could exceed 45 degrees Celcius by 2030 and surpass 46 degrees Celcius by 2050, a recent study says.

The study titled “The Impact of Heatwaves in Bangladesh: Historical Trends, Present Challenges and Future Projections,” conducted by the Environment and Social Development Organisation (ESDO), notes that since the early 2000s, maximum temperatures have been steadily rising in Bangladesh, with several occurrences surpassing 37.8 degrees Celcius between 2014 and 2024.

At the publication’s presentation today (2 July), ESDO Senior Policy and Technical Adviser Dr Shahriar Hossain, also the lead author of the study, said, “We need to change unsustainable urbanisation and adopt sustainable and environment-friendly urban planning.”

Conducted following the methods of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the study reviewed the last 50 years of temperature variations in Bangladesh, researchers said.

Comprehensive, long-term policies should be implemented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance resilience against future heatwaves

ESDO Chairperson Syed Marghub Morshed

Four key factors have contributed to Bangladesh experiencing its highest temperature on record, reaching 43.8 degrees Celcius in April this year. These factors collectively intensified the recent heatwave, highlighting the critical intersection of local geography, global emissions, oceanic phenomena, and human-induced climate change impacts.

This shift towards hotter climates, influenced by carbon emissions from fossil fuels, transportation, industry, and agriculture, is exacerbating the frequency and severity of heat waves.

“ESDO has done this projection based on previous trends and if these trends continue, the temperature will be intolerable for us in the future. Comprehensive, long-term policies should be implemented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance resilience against future heatwaves,” said ESDO’s Chairperson Syed Marghub Morshed, a former secretary of the government of Bangladesh.

Key findings include the first recorded heat wave in 1972, which reached 45.1 degrees Celcius, and a recent heat wave in April, resulting in at least 15 heat-related deaths. In 2023, hospitals admitted up to 1,200 patients daily due to heat-related illnesses. 

The research also found that Bangladesh has experienced a significant rise in average temperatures over the past 44 years, amounting to an increase of 0.5 degrees Celcius. Projections indicate that by 2030, this average temperature could further rise by 0.7 degrees Celcius, and by 2050, it might increase by 1.4 degrees Celcius.

Experts said Bangladesh urgently needs adaptation measures in agriculture, urban planning, and healthcare to combat the escalating heat wave impacts.

International support and funding are crucial to build resilience against these extreme conditions and protect health, agriculture, and urban environments.

Dhaka University, Department of Soil, Water and Environment Associate Professor Mohammad Enayet Hossain told TBS, “The area of urban heat islands in Dhaka is increasing day by day. Therefore, the amount of greenery and wetlands should be increased. Instead of planting trees on road dividers, it should be planted elsewhere to make it sustainable.”

“Bangladesh swelters under relentless heat waves, challenging health, agriculture, and livelihoods, necessitating resilience and cool-headed solutions,” said Siddika Sultana, executive director of ESDO in Bangladesh.